It’s hard to predict what exactly will happen today. After four long days of zooming across the state, meeting characters from both ends of the political spectrum, and achieving a new understanding of what people are doing here.
We’ve heard about the political game that campaign offices have been playing, and how the caucuses go down, but there’s quite a big difference between seeing and believing. We’re eager to hear the debate and the discussion, the tabulations, and the voices of the politically active Iowans who are looking to set the wheels rolling for the man or woman who might just be the next president of the United States with their decision.
It’s hard to tell who’ll be touting a 1st place position by the time this is all over. The final Des Moines Register polling showed that Obama and Huckabee lead their respective political parties, but that was January 1st: three days just might make all the difference in this state.
It’s certainly an exciting time to be here, the entire nation looking at the events tonight as a kind of super-special event. And yet, there will be no definitive answers by the end of tonight: a victory in Iowa will certainly help a candidate’s chances, but until answers arrive in New Hampshire and the swarm of primaries taking place on Super-Duper Tuesday, we’ll have to wait.
Iowa results cannot be completely depended on: In 1992, Bill Clinton pulled a 3% showing compared to Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, who won the caucuses with 76% of the polls.
But then again, a caucus can boost the little guy to the ticket: Jimmy Carter was something a pure no-name when he entered the 1976 race, and following victory in Iowa, Carter eventually rolled into the White House.
This year has seen a exciting presidential race thus far; we hope tonight’s caucuses will be informative and representative of the sort of direct democracy that we have heard so much about.