The CSU Hurricane Forecast Team has accurately predicted hurricane trends for the season for the fourth consecutive time.
William Gray, a professor of atmospheric science, and the CSU Hurricane Forecast Team have been providing seasonal Atlantic Basin hurricane forecasts for the past 19 years, according to a press release.
The predications this year were accurate in the areas of hurricanes, hurricane days, intense hurricanes and intense hurricane days.
The team predicted eight named storms, three hurricanes and one intense hurricane for the season in their September forecast. As of Nov. 21, there had been 12 named storms, four hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.
The team also predicted 10 hurricane days and two intense hurricane days, and 11 hurricane days and 2.5 intense hurricane days were observed.
The hurricane forecast team uses its ability to predict variation of forecast parameters from climatological averages to measure its forecasting abilities.
Over the past four years, the team has shown improvement in this area with the average of their skill being close to 80 percent at the early August period for Net Tropical Cyclone activity.
“Overall, we are making very good progress on improving statistical hurricane forecasting techniques and in better understanding why there is such variability in month-to-month and year-to-year Atlantic basin hurricane activity,” Gray said.